OPeD: How deadly is Wuhan’s Coronavirus?

The Chinese government couldn’t ask for anything worse in the midst of trade wars. The Wuhan’s Corona-virus is one of many Corona viruses out there but it’s the most deadly to date.

What’s sets this virus apart from others like Mers and SARS is its ease to transmission. According to the US Senate discussion the Chinese government has lied about the transmission of the virus. In fact, according to the U.S. you don’t need to touch a person with a virus but you can be infected by being at close proximity without touching.

We should know that an epidemic or any outbreak has a direct influence in the Geo-politics of the world. Like for instance after the outbreak a lot of neighboring countries to China closed their borders and halted the flight into and out of China that alone has a direct impact to the economy of the country.

Public health is a part of National security an outbreak not only disrupts politics, trade and production but it’s disrupts even the trust that people may have in the government of the day. The first problem with Asia, is that urbanization is growing strong and people are traveling a lot which makes an outbreak to spread quicker that anticipated. It’s is said in Wuhan there has been about 5 million who has been in and out of the place before the virus was dictated, that may suggest that about 5 million people are spreading it in the world.

The politicians are dumbfounded by this outbreak and they had no plans in place to fight such should it arises, in 2018 Tuberculosis killed about 18 million people because this has not be reported in the media, Politicians redirect monies that were meant to fight another virus to stop the outbreak; which means the number of Tuberculosis victims will rise.

This has hit China at a very bad time, whilst they are busy in the middle of trade wars, while millions of Chinese are planning to visit their home country for traditional festivities, in Hong Kong there are protests and their economy is slowing down. And Wuhan is seating in the crossroads of the Chinese coastal area, so the decision of closing down the place as they did during the outbreak of SARS would cripple their economy.

It took about 278 days to contain the virus like SARS by the costs were about $40 Billion for Chinese GDP and about $100 Billion global bill. So with this one it’s going to be even more. Not for Chinese only but even for neighboring states. Much of East and South East Asia depends on China’s tourists to stimulate economic growth; Thailand will feel the pinch since about 5% of their GDP growth comes from China. Japan, if this virus is not contained will loose about $25 Billion of  2020 Summer Olympics.

In China already the authorities has suspended air, road and water way transit in and out out of Wuhan and other 15 cities. This has major impact as Wuhan is a major transportation hub as well as the center of manufacturing heavy industry and scientific research.

If this is not contained in time, even the Chinese regime may be in trouble as this will be interpreted as failure from their side. This has a Domino effect because if there is political instability in China that will have direct influence in Africa as China has invested much in this Continent.

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